Indo-Pacific Insight: Weekly to February 22nd 2025
Pakistan's Gwadar port, Japan's Indo-Pacific role, Golden Triangle SEZ, $8BN Vietnam-China rail, Australia-PNG defense treaty, China's onshore oil & gas, India & US LNG, ASEAN's ageing populations...
Laos' Golden Triangle SEZ tries to clean up its act, as Thailand gets tough
The Nation, Thailand
"When Nation TV compared the area to its 2023 visit, it became clear that the atmosphere now was quieter. Many restaurants, pubs, bars, and hotels have closed, and some large buildings have been abandoned."
"[SEZ VP Gao Long] stated on stage that over the past 18 years, the city had developed according to the established plans and would continue to advance in line with the Belt and Road Initiative, under the strong relationship between Laos and China."
Navigating the Indo-Pacific strategic environment: An Indonesian's perspective
The Jakarta Post
"In the years ahead, the Indo-Pacific region is likely to experience increasing tensions, which, if left unaddressed, could have adverse effects on Indonesia. Policymakers in Jakarta are acutely aware of the importance of maintaining security and stability in the region, as these factors are essential for achieving economic growth. Indonesia aims for an 8 percent growth rate and a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$30,300, aligning with the nation's aspiration to become a developed country by 2045 under its Golden Indonesia Vision 2045."
Thai PM highlights importance of regional economic integration
Viet Nam News
"RCEP involves 15 countries, comprising the 10 ASEAN member states - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Việt Nam - along with five of the bloc's Dialogue Partners - Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. It encompasses about 30 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) and a similar proportion of the world's population."
BRICS expansion and Japan's latent leadership in a torn Indo-Pacific
East Asia Forum
"But this need not be the case — Japan could offer Southeast Asia a 'third option'. ASEAN countries consistently rank Japan as their most trustworthy partner, yet Japan remains less influential than it should be. Japan's leadership in finalising the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018 was a watershed moment for its regional role. In the security realm, ASEAN countries remain conspicuously silent on Japan's remilitarisation, with some actively welcoming the prospect. These signs suggest that ASEAN and other Indo-Pacific countries may want a more vocal Japan."
Vietnam parliament approves $8 billion rail link to China
AFP via Yahoo News
"The new rail line will run through some of Vietnam's key manufacturing hubs, home to Samsung, Foxconn, Pegatron and other global giants, many of whom rely on a regular flow of components from China."
"The route will stretch 390 kilometres (240 miles) from the port city of Haiphong to the mountainous city of Lao Cai, which borders China's Yunnan province, and will also run through the capital Hanoi."
"The other line to China, which has not yet been approved by parliament, will connect Hanoi to Lang Son province, which borders China's Guangxi region, travelling through another area packed with global manufacturing facilities."
Trump and the Philippines: Will the Squad Top the Quad?
The Diplomat
"However, there are good reasons why Trump might opt to revive the “Squad” beyond the Quad. The former replaces India with the Philippines, while other members remain the same. In addition to being a traditional treaty ally of Washington, the Philippines holds a significant place in Trump's “America First” vision for the Indo-Pacific. If Trump's regional policy is indeed driven by U.S. military engagement to counter Chinese belligerence in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, then the Philippines may become a linchpin in U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific."
China's Private Berths Emerge as Hotspots for Russia, Iran Oil
Bloomberg
"Dongying, in the eastern Shandong province, became a key receiving port after state-run Shandong Port Group sold at least one terminal to a private entity, according to traders familiar with the matter. They asked not to be named as the information is not public."
"The Si He, a tanker sanctioned on Jan. 10, discharged more than 744,000 barrels of Russian ESPO crude at Dongying last week, according to the traders and commodities-tracking platform Kpler."
"Other hotspots have also emerged, including an independently-run berth in Yangshan, south of Shanghai, and a terminal in the southern port of Huizhou, which received a shipment of Iranian oil last month."
Via Reuters:
N. Korea's combat gains may reshape East Asia's security, Ukraine Intel Chief warns
The Chosun Daily
"Initially, [North Korea's KN-23 missile] accuracy was severely flawed, with an error margin of 500 to 1,500 meters," he said. "But Russian missile experts made technical modifications, resolving the issue. The missile is now significantly more precise and a far greater threat."
"North Korea is using this war to gain combat experience and modernize its military technology," Budanov said. "This will have lasting consequences for the security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region."
Australia and Papua New Guinea to begin negotiations on new defence treaty
ABC News
"Australia has deep and longstanding defence ties with Papua New Guinea, and is already ramping up assistance for PNG police, the judiciary and the military under the 2023 defence agreement, which entered into force late last year."
"But analysts say a binding treaty would enshrine Australia's position as PNG's key security partner, setting yet another barrier in front of China as it tries to strike its own policing pact with Port Moresby."
What You Need to Know About Indonesia's Revised Mining Law
The Jakarta Globe
"ICW [Indonesia Corruption Watch] argues that including religious organizations and private entities in the mining licensing process could be politically motivated, benefiting government loyalists rather than experienced operators. The revision also increases the risk of corruption, as licenses can now be granted through prioritization instead of competitive auctions. Without clear criteria for prioritization, ICW warns that the process could be vulnerable to influence-peddling and bribery."
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway: China's Strategic Expansion in Russia's Backyard
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst
"In the future, the CKU railway could become a central hub for rail connectivity in Asia, linking Central Asia with South and West Asia. Once completed, the railway may be expanded east-west or north-south by integrating it with other countries' rail networks. Potential extensions include a route from Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. Additionally, Uzbekistan's existing connections with Turkmenistan and Iran could position the CKU railway as one of the shortest routes between China and Western Europe."
Ominous Political Storm Gathers over Thai-Cambodian Dispute in Gulf of Thailand
Fulcrum, Singapore
"Opposition parties and legal experts have urged the Paetongtarn Administration to discard the 'MOU-44' because it has disadvantaged Thailand in how it had exerted its rightful maritime claims. They are concerned that continuing to use the 'MOU-44' could be misconstrued as Thailand's ‘tacit acceptance’ of Cambodia's claim over half of Koh Kood. Opponents of the Shinawatra family have threatened the revival of massive street protests to oust Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra for allegedly colluding with her father Thaksin, in 'selling Thai sovereignty' to Cambodia in exchange for kickbacks from oil companies."
"In this case, [Former PM] Thaksin's influence over his 36-year-old daughter [the current PM] is exposing him to additional accusations of political interference, and putting Paetongtarn at risk of dereliction of duty, which could lead to her dismissal."
China Starts Ultra-Deep Onshore Oil and Gas Drilling Campaign
OilPrice.com
"The drilling campaign, in China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, aims to reach oil and gas resources that are about 8,000 meters (26,247 ft) underground."
"In recent years, China has intensified ultra-deep drilling, both onshore and offshore, looking to unlock more of domestic oil and gas resources to help meet its demand for hydrocarbons and reduce dependence on imports."
"Led by the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, the project involves a number of research institutions and companies. Its purpose: to develop a smart drilling rig that could reach depths of 15,000 meters, or about 50,000 feet."
India to Buy More US Oil, LNG to Avoid Tariffs
RigZone
"India has agreed to boost oil and gas imports from the US in an effort to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries and avoid retaliatory tariffs."
“I think we purchased about $15 billion in US energy output,” India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said during a media briefing in Washington on Thursday, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Donald Trump. “There is a good chance that this figure will go up as much as $25 billion.”
The ASEAN Gray wave
The Nation, Thailand
"When Malaysia last chaired ASEAN a decade ago, there were 39.3 million people aged 65 and above in Southeast Asia."
"The number has since grown to 56.2 million according to the United Nations' population estimates, reflecting rapid growth in ASEAN's population of seniors."
"ASEAN figures also show that between 2016 and 2022, the elderly population in the region grew more than four times faster than the region's total population."
How Will Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim Advance Malaysia's Belt and Road Cooperation with China?
RSIS - S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (pdf link)
"Since Anwar's coming to power in late 2022, Malaysia-China relations have taken an upbeat turn, riding on the momentum derived from the opportune timing of two crucial anniversaries – the 10th anniversary of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023 and the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties in 2024.11 During his first official visit to China in March–April 2023, Anwar not only restated Malaysia's support for the BRI but also endorsed the Chinese concept of 'Community of Shared Future' and the three global initiatives put forth by Xi Jinping (the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilisation Initiative). These endorsements were formally included in the 'Joint Statement on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership towards China-Malaysia Community with a Shared Future', issued during Chinese premier Li Qiang's visit to Malaysia in June 2024.12 During the visit, both governments signed the second Five-Year Trade and Economic Cooperation Programme (2024–2028)."
Sanakham Dam Sparks Fear and Anguish Along the Thai-Lao Border
The Diplomat
'As Manorom told Transborder News, “The Sanakham Dam will cause severe impacts on hydrology, ecology, society, economy, culture, and livelihoods.” In addition, she noted that “68 villages in Loei Province and 47 villages in Nong Khai Province, with a population of 70,000, will be the worst affected, as they lie within a 15-kilometer radius of the project. But this was not made clear and transparent by the ONWR [Office of the National Water Resources] forum."'
Also: The Bangkok Post
Chinese East Hope Group to Implement Major Non-Ferrous Metals Project in Kazakhstan
Mining & Exploration Forum
"As part of this investment project, East Hope Group plans to build a large industrial park in Kazakhstan, introducing cutting-edge technologies in the field of non-ferrous metallurgy for deep processing and production of finished products. The project's cost is expected to exceed $12 billion, with the company planning to supply products to the European Union, Central Asia, and China. The project aims to create up to 10,000 new jobs at various stages of implementation."
U.S. Space Force to beef up Japan unit amid growing threat in region
Kyodo News
"While there's only a limited number of personnel today, we're going to grow that component over the next year or two into the fully capable system that we think we need here in Japan as a part of a larger network in the Indo Pacific," Lt. Gen. David Miller, head of the U.S. Space Operations Command, told a recent interview in Tokyo.
"The United States, Japan and South Korea, meanwhile, have been increasing their trilateral cooperation in addressing the challenges posed by North Korea's weapons development program, having fully activated a real-time information-sharing system for missiles launched by Pyongyang in December 2023."
The 'Hefei model': How China is building high-tech industries
China Business Spotlight, on Substack
"Just 15 years ago, Hefei was a rather unremarkable provincial capital in Anhui. Today, it is a symbol of a new form of Chinese industrial policy. The ‘Hefei model’ is based on a simple but effective principle: the city acts like a venture capital fund. Instead of distributing subsidies indiscriminately, the local government makes targeted investments in companies with potential - and exits at a profit as soon as the companies stand on their own two feet."
Warming India–Indonesia rhetoric belies challenges of Global South leadership
Chatham House
"As sprawling, multi-ethnic democracies with heavily decentralized political systems, with borders set by the arbitrary limits of colonial expansion, India and Indonesia share many common development challenges. Both also have foreign policies that seek to forge independent paths between China and the US. Each speaks of the need to rebalance the multilateral system in favour of developing nations."
"But, too often, India and Indonesia have faced shared challenges in parallel rather than in unison, operating essentially as competing foreign investment destinations: Both see themselves as beneficiaries of the push to de-risk or diversify supply chains away from China. Both seek to leverage their large populations, favourable demographics and low-cost labour advantage. Both maintain thriving start-up digital ecosystems."
Pakistan's Gwadar port shows China's Belt and Road can fail
Deutsche Welle
"The idea behind the CPEC was to connect China's western Xinjiang province with the sea via Pakistan. This would shorten trade routes for China and help avoid the contentious Malacca Strait choke point, a narrow waterway between Malaysia and Sumatra that links the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Pakistan, meanwhile, would benefit from increases in trade, infrastructure and industry along the 2,000-kilometer corridor (1,240 miles), all financed by China."
"[Nigeria's] Lekki port received 26 ships in 2023, its first year of operation, according to ship tracking and maritime analytics provider MarineTraffic. It's a modest number compared to bigger ports — but Gwadar, despite being completed in 2007, has only logged 22 ships in its best year to date. It has also failed to attract any regularly scheduled deep-sea shipping lines."
The Indo-Pacific frontline: Japan and South Korea respond to Russian threats
Observer Research Foundation
"Reports in late December 2024, showed that Russia's military developed a list of 160 potential targets in Japan and South Korea for a hypothetical conflict, based on secret documents dated between 2008 and 2014. The plans were created under Moscow's assumption and response plans for a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-related war expanding to East Asia. The target list includes 82 military sites such as command centres, air bases, naval installations, and radar facilities."
"The leaked Russian military documents detailed plans to target Japan's critical infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, underscoring the precarious security environment Japan faces in the Indo-Pacific. This revelation is likely to intensify Tokyo's perception of Russia as a security threat, particularly as these plans target not only military installations but also civilian infrastructure."
Japan Goes Hypersonic, Successfully Conducts Series Of HVGP Tests From California To Boost Island Defense
The EurAsian Times
"The HVGP [Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile] is a major step in Japan's defense modernization efforts and is envisioned primarily for island defense. The development of hypersonic glide vehicles aligns with Tokyo's strategic focus on securing its remote territories, particularly as regional threats continue to evolve."
US-China trade war 'poses a threat to 30 Thai industrial sectors'
The Nation, Thailand
"Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and the JSCCIB, said at the monthly meeting on Wednesday that 23 industrial groups were currently feeling the effects of the US-China trade dispute."
"They include key sectors such as steel, plastics, electrical appliances, food supplements, garments, glass and mirrors, and cosmetics. He warned that without appropriate measures, this number was projected to rise to 30 in 2025."
More of Asia and the Indo-Pacific:
Indo-Pacific Insight: Daily LinkedIn newsletter
Indo-Pacific Insight on Bluesky
Asia’s Tech News, daily on LinkedIn
Indo-Pacific Insight publishes these, and other items, daily over on LinkedIn - visit the links below to read, and subscribe:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/indopacific-insight/
https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/indo-pacific-insight-7294644948576976896/
#indopacific #asean #southeastasia #asiapacific #usindopacom