Indo-Pacific Insight: Weekly to January 17th 2025
In this edition: India-Maldives engagement, Vanuatu elections, Samoa uncertainty, Myanmar today and tomorrow, India-Japan strategic partnership, ASEAN centrality...
Note: Indo-Pacific Insight is now posting daily updates on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky; please consider connecting and following there, using the links at the end of this post
• India hands over defence equipment and stores to the Maldives
"During the discussions, the Indian side also urged the Maldivians to take forward the ‘Ekatha’ harbour project at Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) atoll – it is among the biggest Indian grant-in-aid projects in the Maldives. The project was announced during External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit in February 2021. Rajnath Singh and his then Maldivian counterpart, Mariya Didi, laid the foundation stone in May 2023."
• Vanuatu holds election after devastating earthquake
"The election was called after Vanuatu President Nikenike Vurobaravu dissolved parliament in November due to a no-confidence motion against him and Prime Minister Charlot Salwai."
"The country has experienced 18 months of political instability, witnessing three changes in prime ministers."
https://pmn.co.nz/read/pacific-region/vanuatu-holds-election-after-devastating-earthquake
• Samoa: Trouble is brewing in paradise - Fiame’s leadership hangs in the balance
"Later that evening [January 15th], FAST Chairman La’auli announced that 20 members of the FAST caucus had decided to remove [Prime Minister] Fiame from the leadership of FAST and expel her from the party along with five other Cabinet Ministers — Tuala Tevaga Ponifasio (Deputy Prime Minister), Leatinuu Wayne Fong, Olo Fiti Vaai, Faualo Harry Schuster, and Toesulusulu Cedric Schuster."
https://devpolicy.org/trouble-is-brewing-in-paradise-20250117/
• Myanmar’s Escalating Crisis: A Year in Review and the Road Ahead
"The AA [Arakan Army] consolidated control over approximately 88% of Rakhine State, capturing the Western Regional Command and three military operational commands. Similarly, the KIA overran more than 200 military bases and secured 14 towns in Kachin State. Almost all of northern Shan State is now under the control of the [ethic armed organisations] TNLA, MNDAA or UWSA. These groups have fortified their military positions, creating bases from which resistance can launch operations in nearby areas, and consolidated local governance structures."
https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/01/myanmars-escalating-crisis-year-review-and-road-ahead
• Maldives Strategy in the Indo-Pacific
"The US, Australia and Japan, as part of their Indo-Pacific strategy to enhance free and open relations with the Indian Ocean’s small states, have pursued ongoing development and security cooperation with Maldives. Despite suspicion over Muizzu’s initial tilt away from India, continued engagements in development, climate change and security have facilitated Indo-Pacific partners ability to pursue their strategic interests with Maldives."
https://rsaa.org.uk/blog/maldives-strategy-in-the-indo-pacific/
• Navigating Indo-Pacific Dynamics: The Four Phases of India-Japan Strategic Partnership
"The India-Japan Indo-Pacific partnership is not only a bilateral endeavour but also a key component of broader regional and global efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region. It is intertwined with other regional initiatives, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving India, Japan, the United States, and Australia, and complements the efforts of ASEAN-led mechanisms in promoting regional cooperation and integration."
https://www.cppr.in/articles/india-japan-indo-pacific-strategic-partnership
• The Indo-Pacific and the Next Phase of ASEAN Centrality
"The concept of 'ASEAN centrality' emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War but renewed power rivalries in the Indo-Pacific have put its relevance under scrutiny. This study contributes to the debate on the continuity of ASEAN centrality by examining major powers’ willingness to adhere to and engage with ASEAN-led mechanisms, which we argue will have a decisive impact on the dominant form of the organisation of regional order. Our analysis shows that the major powers – China, the European Union, India, Japan, and the United States – subscribe to an enhanced role for ASEAN in the economic realm but do not see the mechanism as the first resort in political and security cooperation. ASEAN centrality is hard to continue, although a possible way out for ASEAN is to leverage its in-between position to help diffuse tensions so major powers have a stake in maintaining its centrality."
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/18681034241307658
• The murky waters of Cambodia’s Funan Techo Canal
"The financing details are not the only aspect rife with conjecture. A few extra spanners in the proverbial works include speculation that the project will spur controversial sand mining and exports; suspicions that the cost is vastly underestimated, given a shorter canal in Thailand is projected to take 10 years and cost $28 billion; and its official designation as an “unsolicited” project, suggesting that the concept was brought to the Cambodian government by CRBC, rather than originating with Cambodian officials."
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/murky-waters-cambodia-s-funan-techo-canal
• NZ joins new group that 'might be answer' to US exhausting weapons in a war
"The Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience includes some NATO countries and is modelled on a heavy armaments forum set up to bolster Ukraine in the Russia war."
• China conducts drills near LAC in Eastern Ladakh, Indian forces on alert: Sources
"These drills are not mere training exercises; they serve as strategic posturing, signalling China’s ability to rapidly mobilize and sustain forces in contested regions. The use of exoskeletons, for instance, could give PLA soldiers a tactical advantage in overcoming the physiological challenges of high-altitude warfare."
• North Korea launches missiles toward eastern waters in 2nd launch of year, South says
"South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the short-range ballistic missiles were fired from a northern inland area and flew about 250 kilometers (155 miles) before landing in waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan."
• Philippines starts Spratly Islands upgrades after months of tension with China
"The latest annual Philippine budget allocated 1.65 billion pesos (US$27 million) to develop the airport as well as 300 million pesos for work on a sheltered port."
"More than 1 billion pesos has separately been earmarked for another sheltered port facility on Nanshan Island, which is around 160km (100 miles) east of Thitu Island."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/philippines-starts-spratly-islands-upgrades-093000647.html
• Myanmar’s junta-owned telecoms company Mytel added to US sanctions list
"Specifically, the company has provided 'surveillance services and financial support to Burma’s military regime, enabling the regime to carry out human rights abuses through the tracking and identification of target individuals and groups,' the statement said."
"Mytel, which has millions of domestic users, is a joint venture 49 percent owned by Viettel Global Investment, owned by the Vietnamese military. Star High Company, owned by the Myanmar military, holds 28 percent and the Myanmar National Telecom Holding Public Co, Ltd, a public entity, holds 23 percent."
• Vietnam signs nuclear cooperation deal with Russia's Rosatom
"Vietnam aims to restart its nuclear energy programme having suspended it for years, as it needs to boost power generation to feed its growing industrial sector, a driver of its economy."
"Russia has long been its top provider of military equipment, and Russian oil and gas companies operate in Vietnam's portion of the South China Sea, including in areas also claimed by China."
• Laos and Vietnam launch new cross-currency transaction, retail payment systems
"The initiative was conceived in 2023 and has been built on the collaborative efforts of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and the Bank of the Lao People's Democratic Republic, with support from National Payment Corporation of Vietnam (NAPAS) and the Lao National Payment Network (LAPNet), along with the commercial banks of both nations."
https://vir.com.vn/cross-border-qr-payment-service-launched-between-vietnam-and-laos-121238.html
• Myanmar’s Junta Expands Trade With Belarus Beyond Weapons
"The military regime has expanded its cooperation with Belarus beyond arms dealing, hosting a first-ever visit by its top diplomat at the Myanmar-Belarus Business Forum on Friday."
https://www.irrawaddy.com/business/myanmars-junta-expands-trade-with-belarus-beyond-weapons.html
• China plans space solar station with half-mile-long arrays for unprecedented power
"We are working on this project now. It is as significant as moving the Three Gorges Dam to a geostationary orbit 36,000km (22,370 miles) above the Earth. This is an incredible project to look forward to," Lehao, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), stated during a lecture hosted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)."
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/china-plans-masssive-space-solar-station
• Espionage, Elevated: North and South Korea's Growing Military Satellite Competition
"For North Korea, the evolving geopolitical landscape presents both obstacles and opportunities. While a series of failed reconnaissance satellite launches left Pyongyang seeking external assistance, the possibility of receiving advanced technology from Russia in exchange for sending troops to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine has increased the likelihood of North Korea successfully deploying reconnaissance satellites..."
https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/espionage-elevated-north-and-south-koreas-growing-military
• Japan takes steps to win Australia’s multi-billion dollar frigate program
"Japan has established a joint public-private promotion committee in a bid to win a contract to develop a new class of general-purpose frigates for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). Meanwhile the Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) released an English language video to promote the Mogami-class to Australia."
• Opinion: Trump’s relations with the Blue Pacific
"At the national level this was illustrated by Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Nauru’s decision to switch diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China despite pressure from Western countries, as well as the regional decision in 2022 to reject Beijing’s wide-ranging trade and security proposal, described by one observer as 'an unequivocal display of not wanting to be used as pawns in a geopolitical contest.'"
https://islandsbusiness.com/opinion/trumps-relations-with-the-blue-pacific/
• INS Nirdeshak: A Quiet Enabler Of India’s Maritime Strategy In The Indo-Pacific – Analysis
"India’s leadership in hydrographic capabilities also has a soft power dimension. For decades, the Indian Navy has assisted smaller coastal states with hydrographic surveys, fostering goodwill and strengthening bilateral ties."
• Chinese and Egyptian telecom giants sign commercial agreement
"Indeed, CMI’s parent company China Mobile operates the world's largest network. As well as being a service provider in Egypt, Telecom Egypt is also one of the largest subsea cable operators in the region."
• Indonesia: Govt considers importing Russian oil following BRICS membership
"An opportunity to acquire oil from Russia emerged after we joined BRICS. As long as it complies with regulations and presents no issues, why not?" [Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources] Bahlil said during a press conference at his office in Jakarta...
"On Thursday, National Economics Council (DEN) chairperson Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan made a similar statement, while highlighting that his side is still calculating the pros and cons of sourcing oil from Russia."
• Private forces pose public risks for China–Myanmar stability
"Senior Chinese diplomatic officials have consistently pressured Myanmar’s leadership to ensure the safety of Chinese investments and citizens. But the newly proposed joint venture security company has the potential to shift the status quo by incorporating armed personnel into existing, unarmed private security arrangements — a development that could provoke both diplomatic and local tensions."
https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/01/07/private-forces-pose-public-risks-for-china-myanmar-stability/
• Bangladesh: ACC opens probe into alleged Rooppur nuclear project graft
"The report implicates ousted Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, her Son Sajeeb Ahmed Wazed (Joy) and niece Tulip Siddiq embezzled $5 Billion from overpriced $12.65 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant."
"The alleged corruption involving Tk800 billion occurred in nine projects, including the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant and the Special Ashrayan Project during the Awami League government between 2009 and 2023, according to the allegation."
https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/ib2kmprto8
• Competing Visions: Gwadar and Chabahar in Regional and Global Rivalries
"Geographically, [Pakistan's] Chabahar and [Iran's] Gwadar share similarities, but they serve different political purposes. While Gwadar remains central to China’s regional ambitions, Chabahar has emerged as India’s effort to counterbalance Chinese influence. However, both ports face challenges: While Gwadar contends with an insurgency in Balochistan, security concerns and economic issues, Chabahar remains vulnerable to shifting U.S. sanctions and regional instability, particularly as tensions in the Middle East escalate."
• PM approves HCM City master plan for 2021-30, targeting GDP per capita of $15,400
"Key economic targets include maintaining the service sector’s share of GRDP at above 60 per cent, the industrial and construction sector around 27 per cent (with manufacturing contributing 22 per cent), and agro-forestry-fisheries approximately 0.4 per cent. The digital economy, meanwhile, is expected to account for over 40 per cent of GRDP."
• India, Mongolia contemplating team-up for minerals shipments
"India is currently the world’s second-largest manufacturer of crude steel, and meets 85% of its coking coal requirements by way of imports. Last year, erratic weather conditions hit supplies from Australia, which accounts for more than half of India’s imports — roughly 70 million tonnes a year. Since then, steel mills in India have been seeking coking coal from other countries."
https://mining.com.au/india-mongolia-contemplating-team-up-for-minerals-shipments/
• China’s Guowang launch raises questions about satellite purpose and transparency
"The size and mass of the satellites is unknown. This is in contrast to the Thousand Sails (Qianfan, also formerly known as G60 Starlink) constellation, which has revealed images of some of its flat-panel satellites produced by Genesat."
"The lack of transparency could also have consequences for the issue of space traffic management. With Starlink, Guowang and Thousand Sails constellations being deployed, the need for a level of coordination and communication is growing."
• Ottawa should get serious about the Canadian-Korean defense partnership
"Canada’s desire to deepen its defensive partnerships also extends to the broader region. Following the trip to Seoul, the minister visited Japan to affirm the same diplomatic nuances as communicated in South Korea. Coupled with Ottawa’s pursuit for a membership in AUKUS’s second pillar, Canada appears to be doubling down on its Indo-Pacific Strategy that showcases Ottawa’s commitment to be a reliable and trustworthy partner on defensive matters in the Indo-Pacific."
• SQUAD: A Silver Lining For Quad?
"The SQUAD becomes relevant in the context of prevailing security vacuum in South China Sea. In March 2024, a defence alliance among USA, Japan, Australia and Philippines came together to form the ‘SQUAD’ directly addressing the dragon in the room. Unlike the QUAD’s broader objectives, the SQUAD specifically addresses military ‘traditional’ security, with a pointed geographical focus safeguarding the waters of South China Sea from China’s military transgressions."
"If we circle back to SQUAD and QUAD with a bold Philippines and a benign India respectively, their future paths may be divergent yet complementary. SQUAD will take on a more traditional military security role in South China Sea, with Philippines as one of the major defence regional powers. This allows QUAD to spearhead non-traditional security issues, with India as one of the major Asian economic powers..."
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/05/squad-a-silver-lining-for-quad/
• China's Shandong Port, entry point for most sanctioned oil, bans US-designated vessels
"The Shandong Port notice issued on Monday was obtained from two of the traders and confirmed by a third. It forbids ports to dock, unload or provide ship services to vessels on the Office of Foreign Assets Control list managed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury."
"If enforced, the ban would drive up shipping costs for independent refiners in Shandong, the main buyers of discounted sanctioned crude from the three countries [Iran, Russia, Venezuela], the traders added."
• Chinese foreign ministry ‘unaware’ of port group’s ban on sanctioned tankers
• Indonesia and Japan agree to resume stalled talks on transfer of defense equipment
"Japan is unable to export finished frigates or submarines under its current guidelines on transfer of defense equipment and technology, and it is believed that joint development is the most feasible way to make transfers.
“Tokyo has also proposed joint development of Monogami class frigates with Australia and Germany, and Canberra is expected to make a final decision on the partnership in the second half of this year.”
• Vietnam, Laos Promote Trade, Industrial, Energy Cooperation
"On 3 January, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam and the Lao Embassy in Vietnam agreed to continue coordinating closely to promote economic, trade, industrial, and energy cooperation between the two countries in Hanoi, Vietnam."
"According to state media, Nguyen Hong Dien, Vietnam’s Minister of Industry and Trade, highlighted the significant growth in bilateral trade, with turnover reaching an estimated USD 2.2 billion in 2024, marking a nearly 34 percent increase from 2023."
https://laotiantimes.com/2025/01/07/vietnam-laos-promote-trade-industrial-energy-cooperation/
• Singapore and Malaysia aim for 20,000 jobs and 50 businesses in five years in Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone
"The JS-SEZ, which was first mooted in July 2023, was pitched as a means to transform Singapore and Johor into a greater economic area and to promote cross-border trade. It has since been positioned as a region for international investors to hedge against geopolitical risks, and a destination for Singaporean companies to expand to."
"It has repeatedly been touted as the next Shenzhen economic zone, and pitched as a zone where investors can tap on the sophistication of Singapore’s economy and the resources of Johor as their derisking strategy. Yet, the history of collaboration between Singapore and Malaysia has been spotty."
• China’s new super-dam carries both geopolitical and environmental risks
"In truth, the dam will likely have far-reaching downstream impacts in India and Bangladesh, including altering the cross-border flow and course of the river, which empties into the Bay of Bengal. It will also trap the river’s nutrient-rich silt that helps to naturally fertilize farmlands during the annual monsoonal flooding, as well as sustains marine life."
"Geopolitically, the megaproject is likely to sharpen the Sino-Indian territorial and border disputes, which date back to China’s 1951 annexation of the then-autonomous Tibet. By occupying the water-rich Tibetan Plateau, where most of Asia’s great river systems originate, China gained significant upstream leverage over multiple neighboring countries to which rivers flow."
• India–Japan Agreement on UNICORN Masts: A Key Milestone in Defence Cooperation
"India and Japan signed a Memorandum of Implementation (MOI) on 15 November 2024 for the co-development of Unified Complex Radio Antenna (UNICORN) masts.1 This innovative technology is for fitment on-board Indian Navy ships. While Japan will provide advanced design expertise, India will focus on integration and co-production. The agreement symbolises the deepening of the defence ties between India and Japan."
"Technology sharing and co-production initiatives bolster indigenous production. India has been heavily reliant on Russian defence equipment. This has resulted in vulnerabilities in terms of the availability of spare parts, repairs, upgrades and diplomatic leverages. The antenna agreement with Japan not only unlocks new procurement sources and avenues for defence collaborations but also strengthens the bond with a reliable democratic partner, sharing the vision of a free, stable and prosperous global order."
• New Lao-Thai Bridge Close to Completion
"Construction of the fifth “Friendship Bridge” across the Mekong River, linking Bolikhamxay Province in Laos and Bueng Kan Province in Thailand, is now 96.64 percent complete."
"Bolikhamxay, located near Vietnam’s eastern border, is close to Vinh, a major city in Vietnam and a key point on the East-West Economic Corridor linking Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam."
https://laotiantimes.com/2025/01/07/new-lao-thai-bridge-close-to-completion/
• US to remove barriers to civil nuclear cooperation with India
"Saying that the 'formal paperwork' to remove long-standing regulations on civil nuclear cooperation will be done soon, Sullivan said that 'this will be an opportunity to turn the page on some of the frictions of the past and create opportunities for entities that have been on restricted list in the United States to come off those lists and enter into deep collaborations with our private sector, with our scientists and technologists.'"
"Under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, both countries are moving to deepen cooperation in areas like quantum computing, defense, artificial intelligence, 5G wireless networks and semiconductors — areas in which China has acquired a dominant position."
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-to-remove-barriers-to-civil-nuclear-cooperation-with-india/7926010.html
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