Indo-Pacific Insight: Weekly to January 24th 2025
Indonesian army growth, India-Japan partnership, Myanmar cyber-crime deportations, China in Korea's West Sea, Malaysia's Sarawak gains oil control, West Philippine Sea infrastructure...
Note: Indo-Pacific Insight now posts daily updates on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky; please consider connecting and following there.
• Strategic Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: The Case of Japan and the Philippines
"Japan’s increasing strategic and maritime engagement with the Philippines has led to key developments and strategic initiatives in recent years. The two countries have been building stronger ties for over two decades, with the partnership seeing progress in the last eight years, propelled by converging threat perceptions in an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific. The finalisation of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) on 8 July 2024[3] comes at an opportune time. The RAA, Japan’s first such agreement in Asia, will facilitate the entry of equipment and troops for combat training and disaster response, enhancing military cooperation between Manila and Tokyo."
• Expansion of the Indonesian Army: A Creeping Dual Function?
"At the transformation’s core are two key initiatives. First, the Army plans to establish 22 new Regional Military Commands (Kodam), a big jump from the current 15 (to 37). By 2025, five such new Kodams are expected to be operational. The eventual goal is that almost every province will have its own army command. Second, the Army aims to form 100 territorial development battalions by 2025 and deploy these units in every district across the country within five years."
https://fulcrum.sg/expansion-of-the-indonesian-army-a-creeping-dual-function/
• Red flags in Delhi as a 4-member ISI team from Pak makes a quiet visit to Dhaka
"A delegation from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, including a two-star general, flew to Bangladesh on Tuesday [January 21st], marking a sudden upgrade in military-to-military engagements between Dhaka and Islamabad that is unlikely to go down well in New Delhi."
• Myanmar deports more than 50,000 people as of January 13
"From 5 October 2023 to 13 January 2025, 53,388 Chinese were transferred to China, while 648 to Thailand, 20 to Korea, 22 to Laos, 1,149 to Vietnam, 19 to the Philippines, 142 to Malaysia, 21 to Chinese Taipei, two to Singapore, one to Poland, one to Spain, 13 to Russia, 38 to Indonesia, three to Uganda, two to Egypt, , two to Egypt, three to Cambodia, 96 to India, 13 to Morocco, 29 to Ethiopia, 26 to Nepal, three to Pakistan, two to North Ireland, one to Kazakhstan, two to Kenya, 60 to Sri Lanka, one to South Africa, one to Hong Kong of China, two to Sierra Leone, one to Ghana, one to Burundi and one to Turkmenistan, totalling 55,711 foreigners."
https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/myanmar-deports-more-than-50000-people-as-of-january-13
• European Free Trade Association and the Kingdom of Thailand Sign Free Trade Agreement
"The FTA was signed on behalf of the EFTA States by Martin Eyjólfsson, Permanent Secretary of State of Iceland; Dominique Hasler, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Education and Sport of Liechtenstein; Cecilie Myrseth, Minister of Trade and Industry of Norway; and Guy Parmelin, Federal Councillor and Head of the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research of Switzerland; and for Thailand by Pichai Naripthaphan, Minister of Commerce. "
https://www.efta.int/media-resources/news/efta-and-kingdom-thailand-sign-free-trade-agreement
• Navigating Indo-Pacific Dynamics: The Four Phases of India-Japan Strategic Partnership
"This article provides an analysis of the dynamics of the India-Japan Indo-Pacific partnership by mapping its evolution through four different phases. It also explores the future of the partnership and its broader implications for regional order and stability in the Indo-Pacific."
https://www.cppr.in/articles/india-japan-indo-pacific-strategic-partnership
• Vietnam: Government restructuring to cut nearly 3,000 district-level units
"Vietnam’s government is moving ahead with an ambitious restructuring plan that will significantly reduce the size and complexity of its administrative apparatus. Under the proposal, 13 general departments, 518 departments, and 218 divisions across ministries will be eliminated, alongside the reduction of nearly 3,000 district-level units."
• Politburo proposes major restructuring of Vietnam’s political system
"Do Van Chien emphasized that the reforms are a “revolutionary” measure requiring synchronized efforts in political thought, human resources, and policy implementation. The Politburo has demonstrated leadership by addressing practical challenges and fostering consensus within the Party and the public, garnering positive international recognition."
• ASEAN, South Korea raise ties to highest level on 35th anniversary; free-trade area to be upgraded
"ASEAN and South Korea have upgraded dialogue relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, broadly understood as the highest level of relationship between the alliance and its partners."
"Thus far, Asean has entered into comprehensive strategic partnerships only with Australia, China, India, Japan and the US. Dialogue relations were upgraded with Australia and China in 2021, with India and the US in 2022, and with Japan in 2023."
• Laos, Japan elevate ties to ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’
"The Lao side highlighted key areas of Japan’s assistance, in particular for human resource development, health, agriculture and forestry, infrastructure development and unexploded ordnance clearance. Japan was also a key supporter of Laos’ 2024 ASEAN chairmanship."
https://www.vientianetimes.org.la/freefreenews/freecontent_015_LaosJapan_y25.php
• Thailand: ‘No need’ for casino referendum, says deputy PM
"Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, meanwhile, shrugged off calls for a referendum. He said that while the government welcomes opinion on this and other policies, any delay to the entertainment complex bill could come at a cost to the economy."
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2944460/no-need-for-casino-referendum-says-deputy-pm
Also: Money laundering fears hang over Thailand’s online gambling plans
• Indonesia: Is Prabowo’s 100-Minister cabinet a step towards autocracy?
"The early stages of Prabowo’s tenure underscores a troubling trajectory towards centralisation, cloaked under the guise of coalition-building in a fragmented democracy. His 100-minister cabinet, while presenting itself as a testament to political ingenuity, risks dismantling Indonesia’s democratic foundations. This ambitious structure consolidates power by rewarding loyalty over dissent, marginalising critical voices and embedding a culture of patronage at the highest levels of government. Far from promoting stability, this experiment may erode the delicate balance of power, setting a precedent that endangers the checks and balances crucial for democratic governance."
https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/01/22/is-prabowos-100-minister-cabinet-a-step-towards-autocracy/
• BRICS’ Indonesia, Russia in Talks to Use Local Currencies for Trade
"Russia’s exemption from the SWIFT has made it very difficult for us to use financial settlements in American dollars. That’s why we should find appropriate ways to use national currencies. This is something that the Russian and Indonesian financial institutions are working on. … So yes, we are already discussing the [local currency] systems," Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Sergei Tolchenov said in an interview with The Jakarta Globe.
"Indonesia is already using local currencies when trading with China and Japan, as well as ASEAN neighbors Malaysia and Thailand. Bank Indonesia already secured a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for a similar deal with the central bank of fellow BRICS member India in 2024. The MoU would pave the way for the use of Indian rupee and rupiahs for cross-border transactions."
https://jakartaglobe.id/news/brics-indonesia-russia-in-talks-to-use-local-currencies-for-trade
• Beijing resumes disputed installations in West Sea amid S. Korea's turmoil
"China has installed a large structure in the Provisional Measures Zone of the West Sea (Yellow Sea), a disputed area where the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of South Korea and China overlap, South Korean officials said Jan. 9. The zone, considered a sensitive region, prohibits activities such as facility construction or resource development, except for fishing. Observers believe the move signals Beijing’s intent to strengthen future territorial claims, taking advantage of South Korea’s political turmoil following recent martial law declarations."
https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/01/10/2VZWCDVB2JEOBKDIM5TOW5S634/
• The Quad Plus the Philippines
"Similarly, the Philippines’ expected growth in the semiconductor industry (10–15 percent annually over the next three years) means it can play a role in the Quad’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, announced in September 2021, which aims to identify vulnerabilities in global semiconductor supply chains and bolster their resilience. Given the role of semiconductors in developing advanced weapons systems, ensuring resilient semiconductor supply chains through cooperation with partners and allies, like the Philippines, will contribute to U.S. national security and integrated deterrence."
https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-quad-plus-the-philippines
• Malaysia, EU Resume Negotiations For Landmark Free Trade Deal
"For the period of January to November 2024, trade with the EU grew by 5.2 per cent to RM200 billion [USD$45BN] compared to the same period in 2023. As of 2023, EU investments in Malaysia have generated over 153,000 jobs through 1,323 projects valued at RM227.9 billion [USD$51BN]."
https://www.bernama.com/en/news.php/?id=2384713
• Stakes of Malaysia’s Sarawak taking control of oil, gas resources
"Malaysia’s oil-rich Sarawak is set to make history as the country’s first state to gain full control of its oil and gas resources under a legal framework tied to a 1963 agreement by which it joined the Malaya Federation."
"Kelantan and Terengganu, states in Peninsular Malaysia, are closely monitoring Sarawak’s move, said Tricia Yeoh, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham Malaysia’s School of Politics and International Relations."
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/malaysian/petronas-stakes-01162025155306.html
• Vietnam Wants U.S. Help at Sea and Chinese Help at Home
"Vietnam’s dual outreach doesn’t mean its burgeoning relationship with the United States is fake or insincere. Hanoi has actively sought Washington’s support to counter severe and material Chinese threats to Vietnam’s sovereignty and maritime claims in the South China Sea. But the partnership has a narrow scope. When push comes to shove, Beijing exerts substantial, probably growing, influence on a critical issue to Hanoi’s leadership: regime survival. Washington should not be surprised if Chinese leverage and privileged access constrain and undermine U.S. influence-building efforts."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/13/vietnam-us-strategic-partnership-china-great-power-rivalry/
• The Philippines under the shadow of great powers
"Under the shadow of great power competition, 2024 saw the feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps spiral into open warfare. The UniTeam electoral alliance of the two most powerful political dynasties has collapsed, with political struggle escalating to the point where Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte threatened to hire an assassin to kill President Marcos Jr."
"Sara Duterte is now facing several impeachment complaints, which have been downplayed by Marcos Jr. This is a shrewd move given that it will be difficult to successfully impeach Sara due to the number of Duterte loyalists in the Senate."
https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/01/18/the-philippines-under-the-shadow-of-great-powers/
• China-built airport in Pakistan's Gwadar starts operations
"China has pledged more than $65 billion for infrastructure, energy, and other projects in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As part of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Pakistan is also creating a deep-water port near the new Gwadar airport, a joint venture between Pakistan, Oman, and China that is nearing completion. Chinese people and projects have been frequently attacked in the past by separatists who view Beijing as a foreign invader trying to gain control of impoverished but mineral-rich Balochistan, the site of a decades-long insurgency."
• Over P3B set aside this 2025 for West Philippine Sea infrastructure projects: Rep. Pimentel
"Pag-asa lies 508 kilometers northwest of Puerto Princesa City. With a land area of 37.2 hectares, Pag-asa is the largest island in the [Kalayaan Island Group."
"The island group also includes Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal), Balagtas Reef (Irving Reef), and Rizal Shoal (Commodore Reef)."
"[Pimentel] is also the author of a separate bill that proposes an initial P5-billion appropriation to build new naval forward operating bases in the West Philippine Sea, primarily to secure the natural gas and oil deposits beneath the seabed."
• ASEAN-wide digital payment system, regional power grid key amid geopolitical risks: Vivian Balakrishnan
"Under Project Nexus, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and India have a collaboration between their central banks to create a global network for instant cross-border payments."
"This is by linking their digital payment systems - Singapore’s PayNow, Malaysia’s DuitNow, Thailand’s PromptPay, the Philippines’ InstaPay and India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI)."
• Building bridges across the Indian Ocean: Australia-India cooperation for port development
"Despite handling half of global maritime trade and almost a third of global cargo, the region’s port infrastructure and shipping channels have not been able to capitalise on the eastward shift of supply chains in the 1990s."
• India is staring at an ‘oil shock’ as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom
"The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed."
"The sanctions are also coming at a time when India is tipped to surpass China as the number one oil consumer in the world in 2025, accounting for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally."
"Supply disruptions to India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Viktor Kurilov shared via email."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/17/us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-india-impact.html
• Singapore, US Agree Civil Nuclear Cooperation
"The memorandum of understanding provides a 'framework for cooperation and a mutually aligned approach to non-proliferation on civil nuclear issues and for engagement between experts from government, industry, national laboratories and academic institutions', a joint statement said."
• Myanmar Junta Pushes Key Chinese Projects in Rakhine Despite Looming AA Threat
"The Kyaukphyu port and SEZ are key to the planned 1,700-km China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Kunming in China’s Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean. Kyaukphyu is the starting point of the China-Myanmar pipeline, which carries natural gas to Yunnan."
"The AA has welcomed any foreign investment that guarantees mutual benefits for Rakhine State and investors, while promising to protect existing investments and the security of investors."
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