Indo-Pacific Insight: Weekly to January 31st 2025
Myanmar & female conscription, Thailand-China hi-speed rail, Trans-Caspian rail, India satellites, new Vietnam media controls, China & nuclear fusion, NZ-Kiribati issues, Vietnam-Laos QR payments...
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• The Japanese View of Europe: The Globalization of Security
"Tokyo’s approach to collective security includes a strong emphasis on respect for international law. Japan sees Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a direct challenge to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, which are also at risk in Asia due to China’s claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Japan recognizes that failure to take decisive action against such a flagrant violation of the international order in Europe could encourage similar actions in Asia, undermining the stability of the Indo-Pacific region."
https://nagystephen.com/2025/01/28/the-japanese-view-of-europe-the-globalization-of-security/
• Listing of Conscription-Age Women Spreads Across Myanmar
"General Administration Department and police sources said the junta is compiling lists of conscription-age women and notifying their families."
"The sources said ward and village administrators will use a lottery system to select at least two female conscripts from each ward and village."
"The junta dusted off the Conscription Law in February last year, requiring men aged 18-35 and unmarried women 18-27 to serve in the military for a minimum of two years. The regime has since trained nine batches of male conscripts, totaling at least 45,000 recruits."
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/listing-of-conscription-age-women-spreads-across-myanmar.html
• Thailand expects high-speed rail link to China to be ready in 2030
"More than a third of construction has been completed in the segment connecting the capital Bangkok to the city of Nakhon Ratchasima, about 220 km away and the whole line to Nong Khai at the border with Laos would be ready by 2030, said Thai government spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub."
"A $6 billion, 1000 km rail line from the Laotian capital Vientiane to the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming began service in 2021, a venture 70% owned by Beijing. That line will connect with Thailand's Nong Khai via Vientiane, about 25 km away."
• Risk of violence escalates in Myanmar's civil war as junta flags elections
"The junta was able to conduct a full, on-ground census only in 145 of the country's 330 townships, according to the census report published in December. The generals are currently planning to hold the election in only 160-170 of the townships towards the end of the year, according a source with knowledge of discussions in Naypyidaw, the capital."
"By this summer, about 15 million people in the country will face acute levels of food insecurity, or food deprivation that threatens lives or livelihoods, Reuters reported in December, revealing a crisis that has largely gone under the radar."
• Maldives Government Beset by Corruption Scandals
"The leak contained forged documents that claimed ownership of a land plot in Hulhumalé for the brother of HDC [Housing Development Corporation] managing director Ibrahim Fazul Rasheed. The prime real estate was among 1,351 plots awarded under the previous government’s housing scheme for native residents of Malé."
https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/maldives-government-beset-by-corruption-scandals/
• Trade Along Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Surges
"The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, has evolved as a key alternative for trade between Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) due to sanctions against Russia. The route bypasses Russia and transits through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Türkiye."
https://jamestown.org/program/trade-along-trans-caspian-international-transport-route-surges/
• India sends navigation satellite into orbit on ISRO rocket in landmark launch
"India successfully launched into orbit on Wednesday a new navigation satellite aboard a home-grown rocket, strengthening its independent satellite positioning system at a time when space-based technologies are becoming increasingly critical."
"The launch, ISRO's 100th, comes as competition in space intensifies, with countries racing to expand satellite networks that power everything from defence operations to smartphone navigation and financial transactions."
• Chinese Company to Develop Low-Altitude Technologies and Intelligent Manufacturing in Kazakhstan
"Kazakhstan has already taken steps to integrate drone production into its economy. The Times of Central Asia recently reported on a $12 million project by Yesil Technology Company, a subsidiary of China’s Shaanxi Kaizhuo Electronic Technology Co. Ltd., to establish an industrial drone manufacturing facility in the country."
• Fewer Voices, More Control: Vietnam Reshapes Its Media
"Under the scheme, Vietnam Television (VTV) will absorb several smaller state-run broadcasters, becoming the sole national television channel with specialised programming aligned with the Party’s strategic goals. Vietnam News Agency (VNA) and Voice of Vietnam (VOV) will shed non-core functions and focus exclusively on print, digital, and radio news. Ministries will be limited to one official publication each, a restriction made more complex by separate plans to consolidate 14 ministries — encompassing multiple sectors from finance to agriculture — into seven."
https://fulcrum.sg/fewer-voices-more-control-vietnam-reshapes-its-media/
• China claims leap forward in nuclear fusion
"The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST), China’s experimental nuclear fusion reactor, has reportedly sustained a fusion reaction for over 1,000 seconds for the first time—specifically, 1,066 seconds (nearly 18 minutes). Despite this significant breakthrough, the news received little attention in Western media."
"China also appears to be constructing a major research facility for laser-initiated nuclear fusion in the southwestern city of Mianyang, according to experts from two analytical organizations. This project could contribute to both nuclear weapons development and energy research."
INS: https://www.insnet.org/china-claims-leap-forward-in-nuclear-fusion/
• Responsible cyber behaviour in the Indo-Pacific
"The national perceptions and approaches to responsible cyber behaviour of the seven selected countries reflect the region’s historical, cultural, economic and political diversity, and contrast with those of the region’s major partners, such as the US and Europe."
• Indonesia's new leader expands military's role in test of fragile democracy
"His allies in parliament are also preparing legislation that would allow Prabowo to appoint active military officers into senior government positions, dismantling some of the safeguards put in place after Suharto was overthrown in 1998 following an economic crisis and popular uprising."
• India’s First Offshore Mineral Auction: Critical Gains vs. Environmental Risks
"The discovery of these ‘treasure troves’ in the Andaman Sea is significant for India, as its energy transition gains momentum, its economy continues to advance and its aspirations to become a key global semiconductor and defense manufacturing hub, create a dire-need for such minerals. The Centre for Social and Economic Progress, in its groundbreaking study, predicted that, by 2047 the total cobalt demand of India will rise to approximately 5,914 tonnes, nickel to 26,203 tonnes, and copper to 368,143 tonnes."
• Almost 3 million restaurants closed down in China last year, report claims
"Milk tea chain Cuo Nei Village had nearly 500 stores in more than 80 cities at its peak, but fewer than 50 remained as of early last month. Hotpot brand Just Thai has also lost dozens of outlets, with just three remaining today."
"The rapid decline of China’s restaurant sector coincides with the country’s weakening economy, which has been strained by a host of problems, including record youth unemployment, an ailing property market, the prospect of tariffs from the US and the scars of the Covid-19 pandemic."
https://macaonews.org/news/greater-china/million-restaurants-closed-down-china-report/
• New Zealand reviews its aid to Kiribati after the Pacific island nation snubs an official's visit
"Kiribati, one of the world’s most aid-dependent nations, relies heavily on international support, with foreign assistance accounting for 18% of its national income in 2022, according to data from the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. About 10% of development finance that year came from New Zealand — which contributed 102 million New Zealand dollars ($58 million) between 2021 and 2024, official figures show."
• ASEAN’s new developmental divide
"Timor-Leste is likely to acquire full ASEAN membership imminently, having been accepted as an in-principle member in late 2022. With Timor-Leste’s accession, the gap between ASEAN’s richest and poorest members is set to widen. Twenty-six years since the last new member joined (Cambodia in 1999), it might be time for a new abbreviation."
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/asean-s-new-developmental-divide
• Quang Binh issues investment certificate for Petro Lao bonded fuel depot project
"The project involves constructing a bonded fuel depot and an oil pipeline from Hon La Seaport in [Vietnam's] Quang Binh Province to Khammouane Province in Laos."
"This is part of the bilateral cooperation agreement between the Vietnamese and Lao Governments for the 2016-2020 period, signed on December 27, 2015. The project spans 9.36 hectares and has a total investment of over 589 billion VND."
• Vietnam-Laos QR payments launched to boost trade and tourism
"Seven Vietnamese banks – Vietinbank, BIDV, Vietcombank, Sacombank, TPBank, BVBank, and Nam A Bank – are offering the service. Customers using these banks’ mobile banking apps can scan Lao QR codes at participating merchants to make payments. The service integrates with LAPNet’s network of 14 banks in Laos, ensuring widespread adoption."
"NAPAS, under the guidance of the SBV, has previously implemented similar cross-border payment systems with Thailand and Cambodia. Plans are underway to extend the service to other key markets, including China, South Korea, and Japan, further advancing Vietnam’s financial integration within Asia. The expansion aims to establish a cohesive digital payment ecosystem across the region, simplifying transactions for travellers and businesses alike..."
• Prabowo's Indonesia and the future of India-Indonesia strategic ties
"Under Prabowo, a more robust iteration of Indonesia’s independent and active (bebas dan aktif) foreign policy and non-aligned stance in responding to regional and international dynamics is being expected. However, there will be some major shifts from the previous Jokowi era in Indonesia’s foreign policy approach under Prabowo. What will these changes be and will they help in pushing forward the India-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership? How can India use these shifts/ changes to its advantage in terms of strengthening its partnership with the biggest country in Southeast Asia and also probably the most dominant voice within the ASEAN?"
• Philippines, US, Vietnam, Indonesia train for maritime law enforcement cooperation
"Coast guard and fishery officials from the Philippines, United States, Vietnam and Indonesia practised vessel boarding and arrest techniques at a joint maritime law enforcement training, the US Embassy in Manila said Monday."
"The training covered safe vessel boarding at sea, maritime law, evidence collection and preservation, safety and risk mitigation and arrest techniques, according to the statement."
"The Australian Border Force joined the coast guard, customs enforcers and fisheries surveillance officials at the training as observers."
• Interoperable National Digital IDs Key to Combat Rising Cross-Border Online Scams
"In the wake of ASEAN’s rapid digital growth, which has seen substantial increases in cybercrime and online scams, the need for mutual recognition of digital IDs between China and ASEAN nations has become critical in combating online and cross-border scams. TS Wong, Group Managing Director of MYEG and Co-founder of Zetrix, underscored this at the China-ASEAN Digital Ecosystem Cooperation Forum in Bangkok [January 15]."
"Verification processes," Wong explained. "Many countries participating in the forum, including China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, have or are in the process of issuing National Digital IDs. If countries recognise and enable localised verification of each other’s digital IDs in real-time, it becomes possible to accurately identify online users regardless of how realistic deepfake videos may appear," Wong added."
• Thailand: Biometric SIM card registration approved
"The board of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) has approved in principle a draft for a new SIM card registration system and collection of mobile users' data through a biometric system.
"He said all mobile operators must provide biometric systems for new SIM card registrations via their registration channels and customer service shops within 180 days of enforcement."
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2945410/biometric-sim-card-registration-approved
• Chinese and Taiwanese investments in Thai industrial estates soars 43%
"These companies invested 109.09 billion baht [$3.2BN] in the past year, compared to 76.21 billion baht [$2.25BN] in 2023, or a 43.1 jump YoY. They also hired a total of 30,260 local workers, increasing from 18,979 workers in the previous year."
"Sumet added that to efficiently compete with neighbouring countries, Thailand must streamline the process of foreign company registration as well as investment promotion approval, which will help fast track the establishment of factories in industrial estates."
https://www.nationthailand.com/business/investment/40045443
• Russia Reaffirms Interest in Troubled Port Project in Southern Myanmar
"Russia has joined China and India in promoting its interests in war-ravaged Myanmar, in particular the possibility of investing in the Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Tanintharyi Region in southern Myanmar."
• Pakistan’s parliament passes bill with sweeping controls on social media
"Under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, which was introduced in the National Assembly Wednesday, authorities would create an agency with the power to order the immediate blocking of content deemed “unlawful and offensive” from social media, such as content critical of judges, the armed forces, parliament or provincial assemblies. Individuals and organizations posting such content may also be blocked from social media."
https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-cyber-law-social-media-6de3a878c434abb154b91012bc9ca33c
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