Indo-Pacific Insight: Weekly to March 1st 2025
Vietnam in the South China Sea, Cambodia's border SEZ, Indonesia-Russia talks, China-Laos AI Centre, Pacific Islands & France, DPRK's new warship, NZ for AUKUS Pillar 2, ASEAN digital trade...
India-Germany submarine deal: What does it mean for Russia?
DN News
"Central to that story has been Russia, still the key partner for Modi's government when it comes to arms imports, but there are signs that dependence is gradually falling. While 36% of Indian arms exports came from Russia from 2019-2023, the figure was 46% for 2017-2021 and 69% for 2012-2016."
‘Nonetheless, Singh expects high volumes of Russian imports to continue to India due to several factors. "This is because of the low price of Russian platforms, Moscow's willingness to transfer high technology, and the Russian control of spares and ammunition for equipment already in Indian military service."‘
Vietnam Is Also Expanding Its Foothold in the South China Sea
World Politics Review
"On Hanoi’s largest feature, Barque Canada Reef—known as Bai Thuyen Chai in Vietnam—a new runway is under construction, with reclaimed land meaning it could stretch to just under 2 miles in length. That would potentially make it long enough for larger military transport, surveillance and bomber aircraft to take-off and land. For now, Vietnam’s only runway in the region—located on Spratly Island—is significantly shorter, at just under a mile. Several other Hanoi-occupied features, of which there are 27 in total, could also form ideal sites for new runways after recent and ongoing expansion work, including at Pearson, Ladd and Tennent reefs."
THACO invests $1B in Cambodia agriculture, eyes $800M yearly revenue by 2028
The Phnom Penh Post
"In addition, the company has created jobs and income for 40,000 local workers, with the agricultural project in Snuol district, Kratie province providing 15,000 jobs and the agricultural project in Lumphat district, Ratanakiri province providing 25,000 jobs," he added.
"The $800 million project in Ratanakiri is a large-scale agricultural investment covering 24,682 hectares across Lumphat and Kon Mom districts."
Chinese investment surge into Vietnam raises risk of Donald Trump retaliation
The Financial Times
"In the first month of 2025, Chinese companies accounted for 30 per cent of projects, according to the most recent government data. Chinese investments also came via Hong Kong and Singapore, the latter of which was the top investor in dollar terms in Vietnam last year, analysts said."
"Vietnam, as with many other countries, is also highly exposed to Trump’s threats of reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners. He has also threatened to levy 25 per cent tariffs on steel imports, which could also hit Vietnam, the US’s fifth-biggest supplier of the metal."
Tuvalu's pursuit of digital statehood
The New Atoll
"The concept of a digital nation challenges traditional notions of statehood, which are typically defined by physical territory and a permanent population. Tuvalu’s initiative seeks to adapt international law to recognize digital sovereignty, allowing the nation to maintain its status and governmental functions in cyberspace. This includes the potential issuance of digital passports and the continuation of legal systems on blockchain platforms. While innovative, this approach raises complex legal and diplomatic questions about the recognition of a nation without a physical homeland."
The Japan-India-Bangladesh Strategic Triangle Unfastened
IDE-JETRO, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization
"Cordial and strong bilateral ties led to an informal trilateral cooperation format. This was characteristically displayed in the development of India’s Northeast, popularly known as the seven sister states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura, and the addition of a ‘brother’ state of Sikkim. Japan supported the development of Northeast India by financing infrastructure projects to connect India’s northeast with Bangladesh and Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar and Thailand. India and Bangladesh enthusiastically partnered with Japan and each other towards this goal and made significant progress. However, this has come to a standstill in the aftermath of the downfall of the Hasina government."
China holds live-fire exercises in Gulf of Tonkin after Vietnam marks its territorial claims
The Associated Press
"Chinese authorities said they began live-fire exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin on Monday, only days after Vietnam announced a new line marking what it considers its territory in the body of water between the countries."
"State-run Vietnam News reported that the baseline was in compliance with the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea and would provide 'a robust legal basis for safeguarding and exercising Vietnam’s sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction.'"
Cambodian SEZ ready for expansion as Cambodia-Thailand canal draws nearer
The Star, Malaysia
"The zone’s potential is further amplified by the planned development of the Funan Techo Canal linking Cambodia to Thailand, which is expected to significantly reduce export costs and enhance Cambodia’s competitiveness in the global market."
"Covering an area of 818 hectares, the Snuol SEZ is already home to 14 companies, with a total investment of US$1.2 billion, and has three more companies poised to enter."
"The future Trans-Asian Railway, which will pass through Snoul ditrict, promises to further bolster the zone’s connectivity, making it a central node for trade between Cambodia, Vietnam and beyond."
Russia and Indonesia hold talks to strengthen ties on defense and security
The Associated Press
"Shoigu’s visit, the first stop in a five-day Asia tour that also includes Malaysia, comes after Indonesia — the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country and Southeast Asia’s largest economy — was admitted as full member to the BRICS bloc of developing economies, an alliance where Russia is one of the founding members."
"Shoigu will also pay a courtesy call on Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto before departing for Malaysia on Wednesday."
The Empire Strikes Back: PRC crackdown on Chinese organised crime in South East Asia
The Asian Crime Century, on Substack
"The reality is that the PRC is the only country in the region that can coordinate action against organised crime groups operating online fraud and other criminal business lines across national borders. This is partly due to the fact that Chinese organised crime groups lead a great deal of online fraud and online illegal betting, and partly because the PRC authorities have the scale and capabilities to lend to other national law enforcement agencies."
Navigating digital trade fragmentation in the age of geoeconomics
Hinrich Foundation
"By 2030, ASEAN’s digital economy is expected to reach an impressive US$1 trillion, up from US$300 million today – but proposed new digital governance architecture in the form of the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) is projected to double this. DEFA’s digital trade provisions could increase ASEAN’s services and digital services exports by as much as 45%, equivalent to around 2% of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP), creating nearly 6 million new jobs. The digitalization of supply chains under DEFA could boost goods trade by 74%, or US$326 billion, in new trade flows."
Forging a Secure Indo-Pacific: The Strategic Imperative of Australia-India MSMEs Collaboration in Defence
Australia-India Institute
"But why focus on MSMEs? The answer lies in the current state and future aspirations of the defence sectors in both countries. India’s defence production sector has set ambitious targets, aiming for an annual production value of US$3 trillion by 2028-29. This includes a staggering goal of US$500 billion in defence exports, marking a substantial leap in Indo-Pacific defence capabilities. Currently, 433 startups and MSMEs are actively participating in India’s defence manufacturing activities, forming the backbone of this growth trajectory."
New Zealand and Vietnam sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
Radio New Zealand
"New Zealand is just the 10th country Vietnam has signed such a deal with, and the seventh in just the last three years. Malaysia, France, Australia, Japan, the US, South Korea have all recently inked deals."
"The Indo-Pacific is simultaneously the engine room of global economic activity and a potential hotspot for geo-political tension. Military expansion and modernisation is occurring at a scale not seen in this region for more than half a century," [NZ PM Luxon] said.
China, Laos to jointly build AI innovation cooperation centre
Xinhua via The Star, Malaysia
"This is the first AI cooperation and innovation platform signed between China and Asean countries, aimed at systematically enhancing Laos' foundational capabilities in the intelligent era and empowering the development of various sectors in the South-East Asian country."
"Moving forward, Guangxi will take this cooperation centre as a starting point to jointly establish China-Asean AI innovation cooperation centres with Asean countries, help Asean countries build an independent and controllable AI sovereignty model, promote cooperation between China and Asean in fields such as AI, cross-border data, talent training, and others."
In its Indo-Pacific strategy, France should engage more with Pacific islanders
The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
"For example, French and Pacific citizens are facing the same challenges at sea including illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, rising sea-levels and possible ill-effects of deep-sea mining. France has long experience in maritime domain awareness. This means it can contribute to regional maritime security efforts."
"Satellites of France-based Unseenlabs can locate ships using radio-frequency detection, complementing US maritime domain awareness activities in the region. And France was the first to provide assistance after the natural disasters in Tonga in 2022 and in Vanuatu in 2024 through the established France-Australia-New Zealand trilateral aid mechanism."
Beijing district moves to boost commercial space development, reveals ambitious launch targets
Space News
"It also boasts the highest concentration of commercial internet satellite companies in China, and the overall Yizhuang commercial sector is reported to have surpassed 35 billion yuan ($4.9 billion) in 2024. Its goal is to establish Beijing Yizhuang as China’s commercial space hub and a world-leading space industry innovation center."
"Beijing also announced the establishment of a satellite internet industrial park, aiming to accelerate the growth of satellite internet technologies and infrastructure."
"By 2028, Beijing Yizhuang aims to have close to 100 launches per year, Zhang Qiang, secretary of the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone Working Committee, said, according to Jiemian news. This would see nearly 1,000 metric tons of payload to orbit and 2,000 satellite internet spacecraft launched for China’s megaconstellations."
Assessing Indonesia’s Relations with the US After Joining BRICS
Fulcrum
"The US is Indonesia’s second largest trading partner after China. In 2024, Indonesia’s total exports to the US were worth US$24 billion, or 10 per cent of all exports. Exported items included mainly machinery, electrical equipment, textiles, footwear, and palm oil. If the US imposes 100 per cent tariffs against Indonesian exports, Indonesia will lose significant market share. Yet, Indonesia’s policymakers believe that Trump would not realise his threat. As the largest democratic country in Southeast Asia, with a vibrant and increasingly educated population, a geostrategically important location and abundant natural resources, Indonesia is a partner that the US cannot afford to alienate."
North Korea building second warship of largest new class on east coast: Report
NK PRO
"It added that the ship appears to be 'approximately 117 meters (384 feet) in length and 16 meters (52 feet) in beam,' and that a camouflaging structure was built to cover the construction site in December when hull assembly was in an advanced stage."
"North Korea has also declared its intention to threaten U.S. and South Korean reconnaissance flights over international waters off the east and west coasts by 'constantly deploying a ship loaded with new-type anti-aircraft missiles' in the future.
"Meanwhile, construction still has not resumed on a large new naval base down the east coast near Munchon that is meant to host new warships and submarines, after Kim visited last September and ordered the revival of the abandoned project."
Madagascar’s Promising Asia–Pacific Strategy
The Republic Journal, Nigeria
"As such, although Madagascar lacks an articulated strategy for this regional position that it occupies, recent statements by the minister of foreign affairs, Rafaravavitafika Rasata, indicate that this position is one Madagascar wishes to take advantage of, particularly with regard to the eastern part of the world. Faithful to its tradition of all-out diplomacy and non-alignment, Madagascar maintains fairly balanced relations with China, India, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. In terms of trade, Madagascar’s main export countries in 2024 were the European Union (25 per cent) and the United States (11 per cent), followed by three Asian countries; namely Japan (8 per cent), South Korea (8 per cent) and China (7 per cent). This economic reality corroborates Madagascar’s desire to orient its policy towards the Eastern Hemisphere."
Early TMX Pipeline Expansion Data Reveals China’s Emerging Role as a Significant Buyer of Canadian Crude, Offering Some Diversification From the U.S. Market
The China Institute, University of Alberta
"Completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) project in May 2024 marked a transformative moment for Canada’s crude oil industry, increasing the amount of oil that can make it to tidewater, and unlocking significant new export opportunities. Contrary to many analysts’ expectations, early data indicates that a large amount of this new export capacity is finding its way not to California’s refineries, but rather to China. This marks a noteworthy shift from Canada’s almost complete reliance on the United States as its predominant oil customer - a shift all the more timely given the context of recent travails in the Canada-U.S. bilateral relationship."
The strategic case for New Zealand to join AUKUS Pillar 2
Australian Journal of International Affairs
"Does New Zealand offer sufficient technological or technical expertise that the existing AUKUS members would find of value? New Zealand has many experts in relevant fields and innovators that, with the right investment and focus, can offer novel solutions and may be able to do so at considerably lower cost relative to others. A non-exhaustive list of New Zealand firms operating in this relevant areas include: Starboard that focuses on using AI for tracking illegal fishing vessels and data fusion analysis; X-craft uses AI in their seacraft for a variety of tasks, from navigation to object detection and response command hierarchies; Element X is working with generative AI, underwater acoustics and AI/ML data processing; Eight360 has created an untethered motion simulator; Aware Group have expertise with AI, data, computer vision, acoustic detective and state of the art cloud architectures; Company-X has produced a Flight Deck Officer simulator for the Navy; Southern Photonics specialises in..."
Australia–Republic of Korea Dialogue on Security Cooperation outcomes report
United States Studies Centre
"Southeast Asia is a natural geographic midpoint between Seoul’s core interests in Northeast Asia and Australia’s in the South Pacific; a major commercial shipping thoroughfare of vital importance to both countries; a region of distinct geopolitical and geoeconomic significance in its own right, and a key theatre of strategic competition across all domains and vectors of national power. Yet these shared interests have rarely been identified as a major driver for enhanced Australia-South Korea defence engagement, with North Korea’s military programs operating as the primary, if not sole, object of such cooperation for much of the duration of the strategic partnership."
https://www.ussc.edu.au/australia-republic-of-korea-dialogue-on-security-cooperation-outcomes-report
U.S. plans moves to control Chinese dominance in shipping
Indian Transport and Logistics News
"In a follow up to the tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump against China, the United States Trade Representative has suggested a fee of $1 million per entrance of any vessel of a Chinese operator to any U.S. port 'or per entrance of any vessel of that operator to a U.S. port, at a rate of up to $1,000 per net tonne of the vessel’s capacity.'"
"The move is in response to five union petitioners who filed a Section 301 petition regarding the acts, policies, and practices of China to dominate the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sector. 'China’s targeting of these sectors for dominance has undercut competition and taken market share with dramatic effect: raising China’s shipbuilding market share from less than five percent of global tonnage in 1999 to over 50 percent in 2023; increasing China’s ownership of the commercial world fleet to over 19 percent as of January 2024; and controlling production of 95 percent of shipping containers and 86 percent of the world’s supply of intermodal chassis, among other components and products.'"
See also: US Trade Representative Proposal
Russia signs memorandum to build port, oil refinery in Myanmar
Reuters
"Myanmar and its close ally Russia signed a memorandum on investment cooperation in a special economic zone in Dawei, including construction of a port and an oil refinery, Russia's Ministry of Economic Development said on Sunday."
"Moscow and Naypyidaw have been discussing a deeper energy cooperation, including Russia's participation in the construction of a gas pipeline to the Myanmar's main city Yangon. Russia has also had plans for a nuclear research reactor in the country."
Top leaders of Vietnamese, Cambodian Parties meet in HCM City
Viet Nam News
"At a high-level meeting between the Political Bureau of the CPV [Communist Party of Vietnam], and the Standing Committee of the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) co-chaired by General Secretary Tô Lâm, and CPP President and President of the Cambodian Senate Hun Sen in HCM City on February 21, the two sides shared updates on the situation in their respective Parties and countries, and exchanged views on the regional and world situation, and issues of shared concern."
"He also underscored the importance of educating both countries’ younger generations about the historical significance of the bilateral relations and the long-standing solidarity and friendship between their Parties, States and people."
More of Asia and the Indo-Pacific:
Indo-Pacific Insight: Daily LinkedIn newsletter
Indo-Pacific Insight on Bluesky
Asia’s Tech News, daily on LinkedIn